"Going with the flow"--a comparison of interstate elderly migration during 1970-2000 using the (I)PUMS versus full census data.

OBJECTIVES We investigate how much state-to-state elderly migration patterns have changed during 1970-2000 and compare the findings from 2 commonly used sources of data, the census flow tabulations and the integrated public use microdata series (IPUMS). METHODS We calculate descriptive statistics such as migration rates, the distribution of top destination and origin states, and a new migration Herfindahl-Hirschman Index that measures geographic concentration. Comparisons over time and between data sources are formalized using correlations and regression analyses that permit persistent flow patterns. RESULTS After an increase between 1970 and 1980, elderly migration rates have been stable, with a slight decline. Elderly migration has become less geographically concentrated; the decline of California and Florida and ascension of Nevada and the Carolinas as top destinations are evident. Correlation and regression analyses reveal that migration patterns are overall very persistent over time, especially using census tabulations based on a larger sample. DISCUSSION Elderly migration patterns have been quite stable since 1970. Using the IPUMS, as most migration studies do, exaggerates the changes in elderly migration over time in both descriptive and statistical analyses, a result that is likely due to its smaller sample size and the relative rarity of an interstate move.